Friday, December 23, 2011

Big 2012 Election Lessons -- so far -- for the GOP (ContributorNetwork)

The campaign season has proven to be a remarkably entertaining process. We have witnessed the unshakeable tenacity of Mitt Romney vs. Everyone Else, allegations of sexual harassment and fantastic debate gaffes. The whole thing has felt a bit like an ongoing reality television show, which may explain Donald Trump's participation. While the campaign for the Republican nomination is far from over, it is never a bad thing to do a little performance evaluation.

Here are the top three lessons of the year for the GOP so far:

1. There's No Such Thing as the Perfect Candidate

Much has been written about the revolving door of the Not-Romney candidate. First came Michele Bachmann firing up evangelicals and tea partyers; then Rick Perry came storming in with name recognition and a highly vocal base; then it was Herman Cain as the outsider touting his 9-9-9 plan; and finally we have Newt Gingrich leaning on his experience and record as a legislator.

One by one they have fallen away (even Gingrich is beginning to slip in support, especially in Iowa) as the unsatisfied party-base members look for an alternative to Romney. Romney's national polling numbers have held steady in the mid to low 20 percent area, which would seem to indicate that his base is sticking with him. With such a major split in the party and the solidarity of the Romney camp, the GOP must learn that there is no such thing as the candidate who can fire up support from the entire party. Someone is going to have to settle.

2. Party Elites Favor Each Other

This is the norm, according to Ramesh Ponnuru of The National Review Online. The label of "Not-Romney" has also often carried with it "anti-establishment." Most of Romney's challengers have attempted to label themselves as the candidates of change. But there is something to be said for being an establishment candidate. As of this writing, Romney has received the endorsement of Gov. Nikki Haley (R- SC) former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Gov. Chris Christie (R- NJ), former Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole and Sen. Orrin G. Hatch (R- UT), among many others including representatives, senators, governors and former officials across the country. He has also received the endorsement of the following newspapers: The Des Moines Register, Foster's Daily Democrat, National Review Online, Sioux City Journal, The Oklahoman and the Washington Examiner with others sure to come as the primary and caucus season kicks further into gear. Members of the establishment are usually the ones who influence decisions the most, so the anti-establishment candidate, while generally popular, will struggle to turn that into delegate votes.

3. Everything Not in Moderation

John Sides at Five Thirty Eight notes that it is the tendency of parties to nominate more extreme candidates in the elections following losing the White House. This phenomenon is especially true with the rise of the tea party. This has forced candidates to run to the right of where they normally have run; just check out the positions on issues like abortion, health care and cap-and-trade by Romney and Gingrich. It has given the already extreme-right candidates more exposure. Candidates like Rick Santorum and Bachmann probably would not have lasted more than a few weeks in a field like the 2008 Republican field. The Republican nominee, whoever it is and whatever positions he or she has held in the past, is likely to support much more extreme conservative positions. The more moderate members of the party need to learn to either accept that or look to their only alternative.

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/gop/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ac/20111220/pl_ac/10717525_big_2012_election_lessons__so_far__for_the_gop

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